Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Celia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 200253
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Celia is still struggling in a sheared environment.  Some bursts of
convection continue to pulse near the center of the weak depression,
which remains exposed due to easterly shear.  The initial 
intensity remains at 25 kt, mainly because there have been no new 
data to suggest otherwise.

The initial motion is south of due west, or 260/8 kt.  The ongoing 
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will likely cause the tropical 
depression to continue west-southwestward for the next day or so.  
Celia is then expected to be steered around the southwestern and 
western edge of a ridge centered over the southeast United States 
which should turn the tropical cyclone to the west-northwest beyond 
the 36 h forecast.  The model track guidance is tightly clustered, 
and the new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one with a 
shift to the west at the end of the prediction period.

The depression is being affected by strong upper-level winds, which 
are resulting in about 20 kt of shear.  This shear is forecast to 
slowly abate in the next day or so which will possibly allow for 
some strengthening of Celia by the middle of the week.  Celia could 
even become a hurricane by the end of the forecast period as the 
vertical wind shear decreases and other environmental factors remain 
favorable.  The official forecast is close to the previous advisory 
and on the lower end of the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 12.2N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 11.9N  95.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 11.9N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 12.1N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 12.8N 102.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 15.4N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake



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