Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Subtropical Storm Nicole Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 071512 CCA
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2... CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022
1500 UTC MON NOV 07 2022

CORRECTED TO ADD LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE WATCH AND WARNING CHANGES.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO HALLANDALE BEACH AND FOR 
LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF GEORGIA 
AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD 
TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
SOUTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE...AND SOUTH OF 
HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO HALLANDALE BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...AND ALONG 
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF NICOLE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED 
LATER TODAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  69.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE  60SE  60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  69.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  69.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N  70.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...190NE 200SE   0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.7N  71.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 150SE  50SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.6N  74.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...320NE 100SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.9N  76.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...370NE 140SE 170SW 310NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.6N  78.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  30SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...330NE  90SE 120SW 285NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.3N  81.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...240NE  80SE  90SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 29.4N  83.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 33.3N  79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N  69.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN




Source link