Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 667

   Mesoscale Discussion 0667
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0916 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Areas affected...Southwest into parts of central Iowa

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 191...

   Valid 070216Z - 070415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 191 continues.

   SUMMARY...An increase in damaging wind and QLCS tornado threat can
   be expected in southwest Iowa over the next 1-2 hours. Some risk
   will continue into central Iowa later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous wind damage reports as well as several
   observed/estimated severe gusts have occurred in
   southeast/east-central Nebraska. Moisture advection continues to
   maintain low 60s F dewpoints into southwest Iowa. Thought buoyancy
   will be limited to some extent, convection should remain
   surface-based for another few hours with additional support from the
   shortwave pivoting through the mid-Missouri Valley. The KDMX VAD
   shows 0-1 km SRH of over 400 m2/s2. Several QLCS
   circulations/tornadoes are possible along with a continued damaging
   wind threat. Given the forcing from the low-level jet and the
   upper-level shortwave, this activity seems likely to at least reach
   parts of central Iowa. Beyond 06Z, the low-level jet is forecast to
   weaken which could begin to limit the intensity of the line.

   ..Wendt.. 05/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40649475 41199523 42169584 42519552 42519465 42169379
               41089303 40649377 40639457 40649475