Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 664

   Mesoscale Discussion 0664
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast OK into southeast KS and extreme
   southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 070100Z - 070230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat will increase through the evening.
   Local extension of WW 189 may be needed, with Tornado Watch issuance
   eventually expected downstream.

   DISCUSSION...Convective showers are beginning to increase from
   central/northeast OK into southeast KS, ahead of the primary
   corridor of supercells to the southwest. With a continued increase
   of the low-level jet expected into the evening, there will be some
   potential for these showers to deepen into mature supercells with
   time, within a very favorable environment characterized by MLCAPE in
   excess of 2000 J/kg and strong low-level and deep-layer shear.
   Should this occur, some increase in tornado potential will be
   possible through mid evening, with an increase in storm coverage
   later tonight as ongoing supercells across OK and far southern KS
   spread east-northeastward. 

   Local extension of WW 189 may be needed across parts of northeast
   OK/southeast KS in the short term. New Tornado Watch issuance will
   eventually be needed farther northeast, extending into southwest MO.
   Timing of the new watch will be dependent on the evolution of
   developing cells ahead of the main cluster of convection to the
   west.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36059690 37479619 37659594 37769545 37819496 37759432
               37709419 36649443 36329472 36089507 35889571 35879606
               36059690