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Mesoscale Discussion 645 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...parts of the eastern Arkansas/northern Mississippi vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060319Z - 060445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of stronger storms may become capable of marginal hail, strong wind gusts, and/or a brief tornado. Limited/isolated nature of the threat is expected to preclude the need for WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an increase in convective coverage across the Mississippi Delta region, with one storm having acquired a noted rotational signature via KLZK WSR-88D storm-relative velocity data. The storms are occurring in a zone of QG ascent -- near a well-defined low moving across northwestern Arkansas per WV imagery, near the nose of a 40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet. While deep-layer flow remains generally modest, the enhanced low-level shear being provided by the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet suggests appears to be aiding in storm organization/rotation. With the storms on the northern fringe of a more unstable airmass to the south, ample buoyancy combined with the aforementioned favorable ascent should support a continuation of storms, with some increase in coverage possible as convection shifts eastward into northern Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee. However, with severe risk expected to remain limited, WW issuance appears likely to remain unnecessary. ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34139145 34709125 35049026 35028910 34688847 33588896 33369121 34139145 |
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