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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory


000
WTNT32 KNHC 280541
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
200 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.0N 54.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas de
Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua
* Bonaire

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, Curacao, Aruba, and the northeastern coast of Colombia
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the poorly organized disturbance was 
centered near latitude 9.0 North, longitude 54.5 West.  The system 
is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h).  A westward or 
west-northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is 
expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will 
pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by 
tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the 
northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days
if the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm
before reaching the southern Windward Islands or while moving
westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to
the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela starting tonight into Wednesday.  The following 
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 4 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in 
the southern Windward Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are 
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of 
Venezuela and nearby islands tonight, and in Bonaire by Wednesday 
evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



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