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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion

WTNT42 KNHC 290248

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

Satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance is slowly getting
better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in
the northern semicircle.  However, surface observations from
Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada indicate that the system has not yet
developed a closed circulation.  Therefore, it still has the status 
of a potential tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity remains 35 
kt based on the various surface observations.

The disturbance is forecast to be in an environment of low shear and 
warm sea surface temperatures if it remains offshore, and this 
should lead the system to become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hr.  
Strengthening is likely to be slow until the system moves away from 
the coast of South America after 36 h, at which time a faster 
development appears likely.  The new intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous forecast and calls for the system to reach hurricane 
strength over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the 72 h point.  
Later in the forecast period, the global models still suggest that 
the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact after 
crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast.

The system is moving a little faster with the initial motion now a 
somewhat uncertain  285/23 kt.  A general westward motion near or 
just north of the coast of South America with some decrease in 
forward speed is expected during the next day or two due to the 
presence of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north.  A south of west 
motion may occur for a time while the system is over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea. The new forecast track is similar to the 
previous track is lies close to the various consensus models.


1.  Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the 
Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela tonight through 
late Wednesday night. Localized flash flooding will be possible.

2.  Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas
Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday
evening.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday.

3.  There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts
with land from tonight through Thursday.


INIT  29/0300Z 10.9N  62.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/1200Z 11.3N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  30/0000Z 11.8N  69.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  30/1200Z 12.3N  72.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 12.3N  76.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 12.2N  80.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 12.0N  82.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 12.0N  87.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
120H  04/0000Z 13.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH

Forecaster Beven

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