Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 041450
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

Radar data and surface observations indicate that the broad and 
poorly-defined center of the disturbance is spreading onshore in 
southwestern Florida, with the lowest pressure of 1002 mb in the 
Naples area.  These data also suggest that a new vorticity center 
is forming along the east coast of Florida east and northeast of 
lake Okeechobee.  The maximum winds remain near 35 kt, and these 
are occuring in strong convection over the water east of 
southeastern Florida, well to the east of the advisory position.  
While a cluster of convection is occurring near the center, the 
system is still not organized enough to be called a tropical storm.

The initial motion remains 045/16, and some of this may be due to 
ongoing re-formation of the center.  The track guidance is in good 
agreement that a general northeastward motion should continue 
through Sunday, followed by an east-northeastward to eastward 
motion Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the system will 
emerge or re-form over the Atlantic east of Florida later today or 
tonight, and then pass north of Bermuda on Monday on its way into 
the central Atlantic.  The new forecast track has only minor 
adjustments from the previous track.

Water vapor and air mass imagery show a mid- to upper-level trough 
over the southeastern United States and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 
While this trough is aiding strong westerly shear over the 
disturbance, the interaction between this trough and the 
disturbance is forecast to lead to a better-defined circulation 
during the next 12-24 h, which should allow the disturbance to 
become a tropical storm.  By 72 h, this interaction is expected to 
lead to the system becoming an extratropical low over the central 
Atlantic.  The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the 
intensity guidance, and like the track forecast, has only minor 
adjustments from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida
and the Keys as well as the northwestern Bahamas today. Considerable
flash and urban flooding is expected across South Florida. Flash and
urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the
northwestern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Florida today, mainly in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas 
by this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 26.5N  81.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  05/0000Z 27.8N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  05/1200Z 29.7N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  06/0000Z 31.9N  71.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 33.7N  66.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 35.0N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 35.7N  56.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/1200Z 39.0N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1200Z 44.5N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven



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