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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT13 KNHC 270845
PWSAT3

HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021               
0900 UTC MON SEP 27 2021                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115   
KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                           

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 



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