Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data

Hurricane Roslyn Public Advisory


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 230553
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
1200 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ROSLYN FORECAST TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS, A 
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF 
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Roslyn was located 
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 
20.5 North, longitude 106.4 West.  Roslyn is moving toward the 
north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a faster motion toward the 
north-northeast is expected today.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central Mexico, 
likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state
of Nayarit this morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although some weakening is possible early 
today, Roslyn is expected to be at or near major hurricane intensity 
when it makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure reported from Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter dropsonde data is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area within the next few hours.  Preparations 
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula through this morning and within 
the warning area north of Escuinapa later today.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Michoac√°n and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches.

Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the
northern coast.

Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias, and
southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8
inches.

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE:  Roslyn is expected to produce a life-threatening 
storm surge with significant coastal flooding near and to the east 
of where the center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will 
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the 
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern 
portion of the Baja California peninsula.  These swells are likely 
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please 
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake



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