478 WTPZ41 KNHC 031448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 Radar data from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, showed that the eyewall of Orlene moved onshore earlier this morning, but it appears that there was some east-northeast to west-southwest tilt between the mid-level center seen in the radar imagery and the surface center due to moderate to strong west-southwesterly shear. It is estimated that Orlene made landfall around 1345 UTC just north of the border of the Mexican states of Nayarit and Sinaloa. The maximum winds and minimum pressure at landfall were estimated at 75 kt and 980 mb, respectively. With the center moving farther inland, the intensity has been reduced to 65 kt. Rapid weakening is expected to occur today as Orlene interacts with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico and moves into an area of even stronger west-southwesterly shear. The cyclone is expected to become a tropical depression by this evening, and dissipate tonight or early Tuesday. Orlene is moving north-northeastward or 020/9 kt. There is again no change to the track forecast philosophy. The cyclone should continue to move north-northeastward around the northwestern side of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. The latest NHC track forecast has been shifted east of the previous advisory due to a more eastward initial position. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico, where hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon. 2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause flooding along the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of onshore winds. 3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 22.9N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0000Z 23.8N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 24.7N 104.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown