Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Orlene Forecast Discussion


478 
WTPZ41 KNHC 031448
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Radar data from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, showed that the eyewall of 
Orlene moved onshore earlier this morning, but it appears that there 
was some east-northeast to west-southwest tilt between the 
mid-level center seen in the radar imagery and the surface center 
due to moderate to strong west-southwesterly shear.  It is estimated 
that Orlene made landfall around 1345 UTC just north of the border 
of the Mexican states of Nayarit and Sinaloa.  The maximum winds 
and minimum pressure at landfall were estimated at 75 kt and 980 
mb, respectively.  With the center moving farther inland, the 
intensity has been reduced to 65 kt.  Rapid weakening is expected to 
occur today as Orlene interacts with the mountainous terrain of 
southwestern Mexico and moves into an area of even stronger 
west-southwesterly shear.  The cyclone is expected to become a 
tropical depression by this evening, and dissipate tonight or early 
Tuesday. 

Orlene is moving north-northeastward or 020/9 kt. There is again 
no change to the track forecast philosophy.  The cyclone should 
continue to move north-northeastward around the northwestern side 
of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs.  The latest NHC 
track forecast has been shifted east of the previous advisory due 
to a more eastward initial position. 

Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central
mainland Mexico, where hurricane and tropical storm conditions are 
expected to continue through this afternoon. 

2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause flooding along
the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of
onshore winds.

3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, 
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of 
Southwest Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 22.9N 105.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 12H  04/0000Z 23.8N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/1200Z 24.7N 104.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




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