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Hurricane Lisa Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 021455
TCDAT5

Hurricane Lisa Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1000 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Lisa has become better organized on satellite images this morning, 
with strong convection near the center.  Flight-level, SFMR-observed 
surface wind and Doppler velocity observations from Air Force 
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds 
are near 70 kt.  This is a small hurricane, with the inner-core 
hurricane-force wind area only about 20 n mi across.

The hurricane is likely to make landfall within 12 hours, so it has 
a small window for additional intensification before the center 
crosses the coastline.  The official forecast shows a 75-kt 
intensity for the inland point at 12 hours, but it is expected that 
Lisa will be stronger than that intensity at landfall.  The cyclone 
will rapidly weaken after moving inland and passing over Guatemala 
and eastern Mexico.  Although the center is forecast to emerge over 
the Bay of Campeche in about 48 hours, strong southwesterly shear 
associated with an upper-level trough near Texas is expect to cause 
the system to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by day 5, or 
sooner.

Lisa continues moving westward or around 275/12 kt.  Over the 
next few days, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the 
northwest and north around the southwestern periphery of a 
mid-level high pressure area.  In 3-5 days, the weak and 
shallow cyclone is expected to meander slowly over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the near-surface flow.  The 
official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus 
guidance and is similar to the previous NHC track.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme
southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this
afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and 
the southeastern Yucatan peninsula by this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours,
and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm
Warning areas beginning this afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, 
northern Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 17.2N  87.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.3N  88.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/1200Z 17.5N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0000Z 17.8N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1200Z 18.6N  94.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0000Z 19.6N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  05/1200Z 20.5N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 20.0N  94.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 18.5N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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