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Hurricane Lisa Forecast Discussion


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WTNT45 KNHC 022044
TCDAT5

Hurricane Lisa Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
400 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

The hurricane is about to make landfall in Belize.  Satellite and
radar images show the small core of Lisa moving across Belize's
barrier islands and the eye is getting very close to Belize City.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Lisa during
the past few hours and a combination of the flight-level winds and
improvement in structure in radar images support increasing the
initial intensity to 75 kt. Hurricane-force winds only extend about
15 n mi from the center, and those conditions will likely move
across Belize City during the next couple of hours.

Lisa is expected to track westward across Belize, northern
Guatemala, and southern Mexico during the next 24 to 36 hours.
After that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward
speed are expected when Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche.  Over
the weekend, Lisa is expected to stall before drifting southward
in the low-level flow.  Little change was made to the previous
track forecast, and this prediction lies close to the various
consensus models.

After the core of Lisa moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast
due to land interaction.  Lisa is expected to become a tropical
storm this evening and weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday.
Although the storm is forecast to emerge back over water in the Bay
of Campeche, strong southerly shear should prevent strengthening.
The NHC intensity forecast now shows Lisa dissipating by the end of
the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible near Belize City during
the next few hours.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and
the southeastern Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of Guatemala, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the
Tropical Storm Warning areas through this evening.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
northern Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 17.4N  88.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 17.6N  89.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/1800Z 17.9N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0600Z 18.4N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1800Z 19.2N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  05/0600Z 20.1N  95.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 20.6N  95.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 19.7N  94.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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