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Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT14 KNHC 300249
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X  13(13)   6(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

RICHMOND VA    34  X  20(20)   5(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

DANVILLE VA    34  2  45(47)  17(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
DANVILLE VA    50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X  23(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

NORFOLK VA     34  X  24(24)   4(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  1  25(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  1  34(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)

GREENSBORO NC  34  4  54(58)  15(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   4( 4)   9(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

RALEIGH NC     34  8  68(76)   6(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

ROCKY MT NC    34  9  62(71)   3(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS  34 33  21(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)

FAYETTEVILLE   34 51  45(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X  34(34)   8(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
FAYETTEVILLE   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  6  53(59)   8(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

CHERRY PT NC   34 57  29(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NEW RIVER NC   34 66  14(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)

MOREHEAD CITY  34 69  15(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SURF CITY NC   34 82  15(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
SURF CITY NC   50  1  11(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

WILMINGTON NC  34 92   8(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X  19(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

BALD HEAD ISL  34 93   7(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  6  31(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

FLORENCE SC    34 81  18(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FLORENCE SC    50  1  67(68)   3(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
FLORENCE SC    64  X  13(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

COLUMBIA SC    34 35  43(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X  15(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

LITTLE RIVER   34 94   6(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
LITTLE RIVER   50  8  63(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MYRTLE BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH   50 13  72(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

GEORGETOWN SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GEORGETOWN SC  50 15  74(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X  18(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

CHARLESTON SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHARLESTON SC  50 43  39(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
CHARLESTON SC  64  4  18(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50 17   8(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

ATLANTA GA     34  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

AUGUSTA GA     34 13  25(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)

SAVANNAH GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

KINGS BAY GA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

WAYCROSS GA    34 12   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

MAYPORT NS FL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

JACKSONVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

DAYTONA BEACH  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

THE VILLAGES   34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ORLANDO FL     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

PATRICK AFB    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

FT PIERCE FL   34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

W PALM BEACH   34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

VENICE FL      34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

TAMPA FL       34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ST MARKS FL    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

COLUMBUS GA    34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



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