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Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT24 KNHC 281502
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24...RETRANSMITTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST.
MARY'S RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH
CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SEBASTIAN INLET...FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE...FLORIDA.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY
LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO LITTLE
RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO EAST OF BIG
PINE KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  82.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  937 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 300SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  82.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  82.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.3N  82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.3N  81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...310NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.3N  80.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...120NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.8N  80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...250NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.9N  80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.7N  81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 36.0N  81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N  82.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




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