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Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT24 KNHC 281056
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM BIG PINE KEY WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO EAST OF BIG
PINE KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL 
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER 
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW 
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  82.8W AT 28/1100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  937 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  82.8W AT 28/1100Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N  82.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N  82.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N  81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...240NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N  81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.8N  80.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...280NE 120SE  90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.6N  80.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.6N  81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 36.1N  82.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N  82.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




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