Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 171435
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Estelle remains a well-organized hurricane this morning.  There 
are very cold cloud tops over the core that range between -70 to 
-80 degrees Celsius, numerous and distinct banding features, and a
rather symmetric and pronounced upper-level outflow. Subjective 
Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB estimated Estelle at 65 and 
77 kt, respectively, and given the slightly improved satellite 
presentation, the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt.

Low to moderate vertical wind shear, high low-to-mid-tropospheric 
humidities, and warm sea surface temperatures are likely to prevail 
through tomorrow.  This should allow for further intensification.  
The official forecast is above the explicit model predictions 
through 48 hours since there is potential for rapid intensification 
according to the statistical guidance.  Beyond two days, the NHC 
intensity forecast follows the model consensus and weakens Estelle 
as it encounters a more hostile thermodynamic and oceanic 
environment.

The system is moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or 
295/10 kt.  Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its 
north and northeast, and should continue to head in the same 
general direction for the next several days.  Late in the forecast 
period, when the storm weakens, the cyclone should turn westward 
and follow the shallow low-level flow.  The official forecast is 
nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to the 
multi-model consensus, TVCE.

The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf 
and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern 
and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 15.7N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 16.3N 108.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 17.0N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 17.4N 113.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 18.0N 115.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 18.8N 118.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 19.8N 120.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 21.6N 124.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 22.6N 128.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



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