000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Estelle remains a well-organized hurricane this morning. There are very cold cloud tops over the core that range between -70 to -80 degrees Celsius, numerous and distinct banding features, and a rather symmetric and pronounced upper-level outflow. Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB estimated Estelle at 65 and 77 kt, respectively, and given the slightly improved satellite presentation, the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt. Low to moderate vertical wind shear, high low-to-mid-tropospheric humidities, and warm sea surface temperatures are likely to prevail through tomorrow. This should allow for further intensification. The official forecast is above the explicit model predictions through 48 hours since there is potential for rapid intensification according to the statistical guidance. Beyond two days, the NHC intensity forecast follows the model consensus and weakens Estelle as it encounters a more hostile thermodynamic and oceanic environment. The system is moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or 295/10 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast, and should continue to head in the same general direction for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, when the storm weakens, the cyclone should turn westward and follow the shallow low-level flow. The official forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to the multi-model consensus, TVCE. The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 15.7N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.3N 108.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 17.4N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 19.8N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 21.6N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 22.6N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci