378 WTPA42 PHFO 090239 TCDCP2 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 35 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023 500 PM HST Tue Aug 08 2023 Dora remains a powerful but small hurricane this afternoon, with a persistent and relatively symmetric ring of deep convection surrounding the eye. With a lack of discrete rain bands, a well-defined eye, and a resistance to intensity change, Dora has displayed characteristics of an annular hurricane. At fix time, subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 5.5 from both PHFO and SAB, while objective Dvorak ADT shows a value of 5.8. Cold cloud tops have wrapped around the convection this afternoon and little overall change in appearance over the last 24 hours supports keeping the intensity at 115 kt. The initial motion vector for this advisory is 265/20 kt, as Dora continues on its rapid westward track across the basin. A deep-layer ridge moving westward in tandem with Dora had been supporting this motion, and will generally continue to do so for the next day. Despite the recent (somewhat unusual) south of west motion, the forecast track anticipates that Dora will gradually gain latitude as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The updated track forecast is nudged slightly southward from the previous forecast, closer model consensus. On the forecast track, Dora will pass well south of Johnston Island Wednesday night, and into the western Pacific basin on Friday. Environmental conditions along the forecast track remain conducive for maintaining a strong tropical cyclone over the next couple of days, with relatively low vertical wind shear and sufficiently high SSTs/OHC. Little change in intensity is indicated in the updated forecast until the later forecast periods, when increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear may lead to a fairly rapid demise of the small cyclone's core. The updated intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN consensus, with LGEM guidance influencing the forecast in the later periods. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 11.4N 160.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 11.6N 163.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 12.0N 166.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 12.7N 170.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 13.5N 173.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 14.6N 177.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 15.8N 179.9E 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 17.5N 174.0E 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 18.9N 168.6E 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Foster/Birchard