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Tropical Storm Wanda Forecast Discussion


543 
WTNT41 KNHC 052032
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Fri Nov 05 2021

Wanda's convective cloud pattern appears a little more organized 
within its eastern semicircle this evening per GOES-East visible 
and infrared imagery. However, cloud tops have not cooled. 
Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged and with the 
lack of any new ASCAT data, the maximum sustained winds remain 
unchanged from the previous advisory.

Wanda is moving southward between a shortwave ridge to its 
northwest and a deep layer low to its south. The initial motion is 
considered 180/8 kt; the shorter term motion is quicker, closer to 
15 kt, but unlikely to maintain itself as it leaves a zone of 
confluent flow. The southward motion is expected to continue into 
Saturday. Starting late Saturday, a developing mid-latitude cyclone 
south of Atlantic Canada will break down the ridge and the deep 
layer low will migrate farther away. The cyclone near Canada is 
expected to grow in size and intensity which will act to accelerate 
Wanda and eventually absorb the storm. The latest track guidance 
shows a sharper turn and has trended west during its period of 
acceleration, which has led to a modest adjustment to the previous 
forecast.

The southward motion should bring the center over slightly warmer
water during the next 24 hours, and during this time Wanda should be
in an area of light to moderate shear caused by the nearby deep 
layer low. This environment should allow Wanda to maintain its 
strength and perhaps strengthen a little. By 48 hours, the 
approaching mid-latitude system will bring some upper level 
diffluence which could offset the affects of increasing vertical 
wind shear. Wanda is forecast to merge with a frontal zone by 72 
hours, and by 96 hours system is forecast to be absorbed by 
the mid-latitude low over the northeastern Atlantic.  The new 
intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 39.1N  37.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 38.1N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 37.5N  37.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 39.4N  34.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 43.7N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 49.1N  23.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 57.6N  12.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roth/Taylor




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