769 WTNT45 KNHC 012043 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 Victor is looking disorganized. Deep convection has decreased in organization and coverage this afternoon. No recent microwave imagery has been available to assess the structure of the storm, but visible images from MET-11 and GOES-17 suggest that the circulation of the tropical storm is still elongated southwest-to-northeast. The intensity estimate remains 55 kt for this advisory, but this is on the high end of the recent estimates and could be generous. Compared to the large changes made this morning, almost no change was made to the official track forecast this afternoon. The model consensus has shifted substantially back to the right, and now lies very near the previous NHC forecast. Victor is forecast to turn northwestward tomorrow, and then continue on that heading through early next week, steered by ridging to the northeast. The new NHC forecast is very near the model consensus through the end of the forecast. Despite the recent agreement between the NHC forecast and the consensus, confidence in the forecast will remain low until we see better run-to-run consistency in the track model guidance. Shear and dry air may already be taking a toll on Victor, and SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment will get worse with time. All of the intensity models forecast that Victor will weaken over the next several days in response to the hostile environment, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast, which is heavily based on the IVCN multi-model consensus. By day 5, all of the dynamical models indicate that Victor will likely degenerate into a trough of low pressure, so dissipation is shown. Several models, including the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF indicate dissipation could occur sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 12.0N 34.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.9N 37.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 15.6N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.6N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 21.5N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky