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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 010239
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021

Satellite imagery shows that Victor has become a little better 
organized since the last advisory, with the convective banding 
becoming better defined near the center in the northeastern 
semicircle.  Recent ASCAT data showed winds of 45-47 kt about 70 n 
mi north of the center, and based on the likelihood of some 
undersampling the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.  Although 
the scatterometer showed a stronger storm, the data suggested the 
system has not yet formed a well-defined inner core.

The initial motion is now 300/10 kt.  Victor is expected to continue 
west-northwestward for another 24 h or so on the south side of a 
deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic.  After that 
time, a developing mid- to upper-level low over the central Atlantic 
is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge.  As a result, 
Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend and then 
northward by early next week when it is forecast to move in the flow 
between the ridge and the low.  The guidance has changed little 
since the previous advisory, with the HWRF remaining a significant 
outlier to the east.  Thus, the new forecast track is a little to 
the west of the various consensus aids that include the HWRF.  The 
new forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast.

Victor should remain in a favorable environment for the next 24 h or 
so, and the intensity forecast shows more strengthening during that 
time,  After that, the upper-level low should cause moderate to 
strong southwesterly shear over the storm, and by the end of the 
forecast period it will be moving into a drier air mass.  This 
combination should cause Victor to steadily weaken after 24 h.  The 
new NHC forecast has some adjustments from the previous forecast, 
and it now calls for the cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 120 h. 
 The intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity 
guidance through 48-60 h, and thereafter is close to the intensity 
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 10.6N  30.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 11.3N  32.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 12.4N  33.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 13.9N  35.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 15.5N  36.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 17.7N  38.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 20.2N  40.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 25.0N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 28.5N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven



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