000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Orlene Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...ORLENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 107.1W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of western Mexico and in the Islas Marias should monitor the progress of Orlene. Watches will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Orlene was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 107.1 West. Orlene is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to turn toward the north-northeast by Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Orlene is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Orlene will affect the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the extreme southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven