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Tropical Storm Nicole Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FONT12 KNHC 092052
PWSAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022               
2100 UTC WED NOV 09 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  3   7(10)   1(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)  10(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

SAVANNAH GA    34  9   5(14)   2(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

KINGS BAY GA   34 32   9(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

WAYCROSS GA    34 21  15(36)   9(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)

MAYPORT NS FL  34 41   8(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)

JACKSONVILLE   34 67  10(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)

GAINESVILLE FL 34 86   7(93)   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

DAYTONA BEACH  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

THE VILLAGES   34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

ORLANDO FL     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ORLANDO FL     50  1  18(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 15  12(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PATRICK AFB    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    50 14  13(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
PATRICK AFB    64  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FT PIERCE FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT PIERCE FL   50 54   5(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
FT PIERCE FL   64 10   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

W PALM BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
W PALM BEACH   50 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
W PALM BEACH   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

FT LAUDERDALE  34 49   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)

MIAMI FL       34  8   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MARATHON FL    34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

KEY WEST FL    34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NAPLES FL      34 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

FT MYERS FL    34 27   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

VENICE FL      34 27   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

TAMPA FL       34 46  14(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
TAMPA FL       50  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CEDAR KEY FL   34 36  36(72)   2(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  3  33(36)  15(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ST MARKS FL    34  6  38(44)  13(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

APALACHICOLA   34  1  11(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  2   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GRAND BAHAMA   50 41   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ANDROS         34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



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