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Tropical Storm Nicole Forecast Discussion


134 
WTNT42 KNHC 102047
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

The center of Nicole briefly emerged over water north of Tampa 
around 18Z and is now straddling the coast of the Florida Big Bend 
region northwest of Cedar Key.  An earlier scatterometer overpass 
showed winds of about 40 kt west of the center over the Gulf of 
Mexico, and this is the main basis for the initial intensity of   
40 kt.  Surface observations indicate that the central pressure has 
risen to near 990 mb.  In addition to weakening, the 34-kt 
wind radii associated with the storm have decreased, particularly 
in the northeastern quadrant.  This has resulted in significant 
changes to the warnings with this advisory.

The initial motion is now 315/13, and this motion is expected to 
persist through this evening with the center moving into the eastern 
Florida Panhandle. Subsequently, a low- to mid-level ridge to the 
northeast of Nicole should move farther eastward as a deep-layer 
mid-latitude trough and associated surface cold front are 
approaching from the west.  This evolution should cause the storm to 
turn northward tonight over Georgia, followed by a faster motion 
toward the north-northeast on Friday. The new forecast track has 
only minor adjustments from the previous track.

Little change in strength is expected until the center moves 
farther inland tonight.  When that happens, Nicole should weaken to 
a depression over Georgia.  On Friday and Friday night, the system 
is expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large 
mid-latitude weather system.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the 
east coast of Florida and Georgia this evening. Tropical storm 
conditions will spread northward along the west coast of Florida to 
the coast of the Florida Panhandle through tonight.

2. A storm surge warning is in effect for portions of the 
northeastern coast of Florida, the southern Georgia coast, and the 
Florida Big Bend. Residents in the warning area should listen to 
advice given by local officials.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone.  These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall this evening across the 
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across 
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding 
on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream 
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through 
the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and 
extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, 
into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 29.4N  83.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...ALONG THE COAST
 12H  11/0600Z 31.2N  84.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1800Z 34.9N  82.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven




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