Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Nicole Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 091455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

Convection has increased in both coverage and organization near the 
center of Nicole, with a curved band or partial eyewall now 
present near the center.  However, this has not yet resulted in any 
intensification, with reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicating the maximum winds are near 
60 kt and the central pressure near 986 mb. 

The aircraft and satellite data, along with radar data from the 
Bahamas show that Nicole is now moving westward with an initial 
motion of 265/10.  This motion should bring the center across the 
Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas during the next 
several hours.  Subsequently, a westward to west-northwestward 
motion should bring the center to the southeast or east-central 
coast of Florida tonight.  After landfall in Florida, a low- to 
mid-level ridge over the southeastern U.S. is expected to slide 
eastward over the Atlantic, with Nicole turning northwestward and 
northward across northern Florida or the northeastern Gulf of 
Mexico, and then across the southeastern U.S.  Finally, a deep-layer 
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west should cause Nicole to 
accelerate northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states.  The new 
track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and generally 
follows the more southerly and westerly GFS/ECMWF solutions.   

While Nicole is over warm sea surface temperatures, a combination 
of shear of dry air entrainment is likely to allow only gradual 
intensification.  However, that gradual intensification should 
allow Nicole to become a hurricane later today while crossing the 
northwestern Bahamas.  Weakening is expected once the center moves 
over Florida, and even if the center emerges for a time over the 
northeastern Gulf of Mexico re-intensification is not expected.  
The new intensity forecast calls for Nicole to weaken to a 
depression over land by 48 h, and then become extratropical by 60 h 
as it merges with a frontal system.  The global models are in good 
agreement that Nicole should dissipate inside the frontal system by 
72 h as another low forms to the north.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or
tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.  Tropical
storm conditions have begun along the east coast of Florida in the
warning areas and will spread northward to Georgia and South
Carolina later today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin along the west coast of Florida within the warning area this
evening or tonight.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend 
along the Gulf coast.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast.  Residents in the 
warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large 
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, 
outside of the forecast cone.  These hazards will affect much of the 
Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the 
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across 
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with river rises on 
the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream 
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through 
the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge 
Mountains, and extending northward through west central Pennsylvania 
into western New York by Friday night. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 26.5N  76.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 26.7N  78.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 27.6N  81.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/0000Z 29.5N  83.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  11/1200Z 32.4N  83.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0000Z 36.8N  79.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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