Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Nicole Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 090257
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Nicole's satellite appearance has changed little since this
afternoon.  Deep convection is not very strong near the center of
the cyclone at this time, and there appears to be some dry air
intrusions into the circulation as evidenced by water vapor 
imagery.  Nonetheless, wind and central pressure observations from 
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate that the system is 
very close to hurricane strength and the current advisory intensity 
is set to 60 kt.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving
west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt  The track forecast
philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory
package.  Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the
south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24
hours.  Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then
northward along the western side of the high.  In 3-5 days, Nicole
is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United
States, to the east of a large mid-level trough.  The track model
guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official
forecast.  This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for
the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance
thereafter.

Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius during the next day or so.  However, the SHIPS guidance
indicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, with
low-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent,
during the next 24 hours.  Nicole is likely to become a hurricane
soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment, 
significant strengthening seems unlikely.  The official intensity 
forecast is near or above the available model guidance, and closely 
follows the decay-SHIPS model after landfall.  Weakening is expected 
after Nicole moves inland over Florida and Georgia and while it
accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States.  The
cyclone should complete extratropical transition by 72 hours and
merge with another extratropical low near Atlantic Canada in 120
hours.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.  Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone.  These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula.  Flash and urban flooding will be likely
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River.  On Friday and Saturday, flash,
urban and small stream flooding will be possible in the Southeast
through the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 27.1N  74.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 26.9N  76.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 26.9N  78.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 27.9N  81.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/0000Z 29.7N  83.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  11/1200Z 32.8N  83.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  12/0000Z 37.3N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/0000Z 47.5N  64.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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