Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Nicole Forecast Advisory


825 
WTNT22 KNHC 081454
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022
1500 UTC TUE NOV 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BOCA RATON TO THE
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.  A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH.  A 
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE 
SAVANNAH RIVER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND FROM ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* BOCA RATON TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SAVANNAH RIVER GEORGIA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF FLORIDA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  72.7W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE   0SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 330SE 240SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  72.7W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  72.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.3N  74.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...300NE 120SE  60SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N  76.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...360NE  90SE  80SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N  78.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...360NE  90SE  80SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.1N  80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...320NE  90SE  90SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N  83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...180NE  60SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.7N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 41.7N  73.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N  72.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





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