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Tropical Storm Nicole Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 090256
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022
0300 UTC WED NOV 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WEST ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN
THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* BOCA RATON TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF FLORIDA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  74.8W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT.......300NE 240SE  30SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 240SE 210SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  74.8W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  74.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.9N  76.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...320NE 140SE  60SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.9N  78.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...360NE  90SE  80SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.9N  81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...270NE  90SE  80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.7N  83.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE  90SE  80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.8N  83.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.3N  80.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 47.5N  64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N  74.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




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