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Tropical Storm Margot Forecast Advisory



000
WTNT24 KNHC 110238
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  39.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  39.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  39.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.0N  40.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.8N  40.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.8N  40.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N  40.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.6N  41.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.8N  41.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 36.6N  41.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.5N  40.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N  39.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




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