Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Lisa Wind Speed Probabilities


328 
FONT15 KNHC 311450
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022               
1500 UTC MON OCT 31 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  36(55)   X(55)   X(55)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   X(22)   X(22)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   X(21)   X(21)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  37(45)   6(51)   X(51)   X(51)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

S SALVADOR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

TEGUCIGALPA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

P SAN JOSE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUATEMALA CITY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

TAPACHULA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MONTEGO BAY    34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

KINGSTON       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



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