Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Lisa Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT15 KNHC 020839
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022               
0900 UTC WED NOV 02 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   X(12)

FRONTERA MX    34  X   3( 3)   7(10)  23(33)   1(34)   X(34)   1(35)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MERIDA MX      34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

COZUMEL MX     34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BELIZE CITY    34 86  11(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
BELIZE CITY    50 29  36(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
BELIZE CITY    64 11  24(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)

GUANAJA        34 91   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)

P SAN JOSE     34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

GUATEMALA CITY 34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

TAPACHULA      34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    



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