Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Lisa Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FONT15 KNHC 312053
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022               
2100 UTC MON OCT 31 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   X(13)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  39(46)  13(59)   1(60)   X(60)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   9(23)   X(23)   X(23)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)   1(21)   X(21)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUANAJA        34  X   3( 3)  43(46)  23(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)  12(12)  15(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

TEGUCIGALPA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

P SAN JOSE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

GUATEMALA CITY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

TAPACHULA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  1   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

MONTEGO BAY    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



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