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Tropical Storm Lisa Public Advisory


259 
WTNT35 KNHC 011749
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
200 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 82.5W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has issued a Hurricane Warning for the 
entire coast of Belize from north of Puerto Barrios Guatemala to 
south of Chetumal Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* North of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* North coast of Guatemala
* Chetumal to Punta Herrero, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located by satellite imagery near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 
82.5 West. Lisa is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). 
This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast 
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center 
of Lisa will move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early
Wednesday, and move near Belize late on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a
hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue
to intensify on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize 
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to 
begin along the northern coast of Honduras within the Tropical 
Storm Warning area tonight and in Guatemala and Yucatan on 
Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan on 
Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the
Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Honduras,
and central Guatemala
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the southeast portion of the
Mexican state of Chiapas and the far southeast portion of the
Yucatan peninsula.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of Belize in areas of onshore winds, with 2 to 4 feet
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in eastern Yucatan and 1
to 3 feet for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Central America for next day or two. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake




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