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Tropical Storm Lisa Public Advisory


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WTNT35 KNHC 020247
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1100 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LISA IS ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 84.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
southeastern Yucatan peninsula from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya,
and extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward to Punta Allen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands, Honduras
* The coast of Belize
* Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* North coast of Guatemala
* Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 84.7 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).  This general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move
near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday, move near
Belize late on Wednesday and over southeastern Mexico on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that maximum 
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Further strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to
become a hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
continue to intensify on Wednesday as it approaches Belize.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 993 mb (29.33 inches) is based on 
data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize and
the southeastern Yucatan Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm 
conditions are expected to begin along the northern coast of 
Honduras within the Tropical Storm Warning overnight and in 
Guatemala and Yucatan on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

* 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the
Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the eastern portion
of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, northern Honduras,
and central Guatemala.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of
the Yucatan peninsula, the eastern portion of the Mexican state of
Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as 
much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north 
of where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and 
extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Elsewhere, 
a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible within the Tropical Storm 
Warning area in eastern Yucatan and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands 
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large 
and damaging waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America during the next
couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi



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