000 WTNT35 KNHC 020247 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LISA IS ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 84.7W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the southeastern Yucatan peninsula from Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, and extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward to Punta Allen. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bay Islands, Honduras * The coast of Belize * Chetumal to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire north coast of Honduras * North coast of Guatemala * Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 84.7 West. Lisa is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday, move near Belize late on Wednesday and over southeastern Mexico on Thursday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue to intensify on Wednesday as it approaches Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure of 993 mb (29.33 inches) is based on data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras beginning early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize and the southeastern Yucatan Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along the northern coast of Honduras within the Tropical Storm Warning overnight and in Guatemala and Yucatan on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of: * 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco. * 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, northern Honduras, and central Guatemala. * 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, primarily across Belize into northern Guatemala, the far southeast portion of the Yucatan peninsula, the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near and to the north of where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Yucatan and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi