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Tropical Storm Lisa Forecast Discussion


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WTNT45 KNHC 030251
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1000 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Satellite and radar imagery showed Lisa made landfall earlier 
this evening around 2120 UTC southwest of Belize City.  The maximum 
sustained winds and minimum central pressure were estimated to be 
75 kt and 990 mb, respectively.  The storm has moved farther inland 
and the initial intensity has been reduced to 50 kt based on a
standard inland decay rate.  Rapid weakening is expected to 
continue overnight and into tomorrow due to land interaction and 
Lisa is forecast to be a tropical depression on Thursday.  Even 
though the cyclone is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche 
in a couple of days, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear will 
likely prevent intensification.  The NHC intensity forecast remains 
largely unchanged from the previous advisory and still shows Lisa 
dissipating by the end of the forecast period.

Lisa is moving westward at an estimated 10 kt.  This general motion 
is expected to continue for the next day or so until the storm 
crosses over the Bay of Campeche.  The cyclone is then forecast to 
turn to the northwest and slow in forward speed, eventually 
stalling between 60 to 72 hours until the low-level flow turns 
Lisa southward.  The official track forecast is very similar to the 
previous advisory and close to the various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected across portions 
of Belize, northern Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico 
during the next day or so. 

2. Water levels are likely to remain elevated in areas of onshore 
flow along the coast of Belize overnight.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland over 
Belize, northern Guatemala, southern portions of the Yucatan 
peninsula of Mexico overnight. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 17.6N  89.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 12H  03/1200Z 17.7N  90.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/0000Z 18.1N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1200Z 18.8N  94.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0000Z 19.6N  94.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  05/1200Z 20.2N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 20.2N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 19.5N  94.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown



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