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Tropical Storm Lisa Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 020839
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
400 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

A few hours ago, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
reported 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt in the northeastern 
eyewall and estimated 55-60 kt surface winds from the Stepped 
Frequency Microwave Radiometer.  The minimum central pressure was 
near 992 mb.  Since then, satellite imagery and radar data from 
Belize show little change in organization, and based on these 
observations the initial intensity remains 60 kt.

Lisa has 12-18 h before it makes landfall in Belize, and the 
cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time.  The 
forecast peak intensity of 75 kt is on the upper edge of the 
intensity guidance.  After landfall, the cyclone should weaken as 
it crosses Belize and northern Guatemala into southeastern 
Mexico.  The center should emerge over the Bay of Campeche before 
the 60 h point. However, strong upper-level winds should cause 
enough shear to keep the cyclone from re-intensifying, and Lisa is 
still forecast to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h.

The initial motion remains 280/13 kt. A ridge to the north will 
continue to steer Lisa westward at a slightly reduced forward speed 
through landfall.  The storm is the expected to follow the flow
around a low- to mid-level ridge into the Bay of Campeche in 48-60 
h.  After that time, the increasingly shallow cyclone should turn 
southward in the low-level flow.  The new forecast track is similar 
to, but a little faster than the previous track as the guidance is 
in good agreement on a faster motion through 72 h.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme
southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this
afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
this morning and along the coast of Belize and southeastern Yucatan 
by this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours,
and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm 
Warning areas beginning this afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the southeastern
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of
Tabasco.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 17.1N  86.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 17.3N  87.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.5N  89.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/1800Z 17.6N  91.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0600Z 18.2N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  04/1800Z 19.0N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  05/0600Z 20.2N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 20.0N  94.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 19.0N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven



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