000 WTNT45 KNHC 011458 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has provided critical data with Lisa this morning, showing that the storm has started to intensify. Flight-level winds have increased to 55 kt, with SFMR winds of 50-55 kt, and surface-reduced dropsonde data of about 50 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of these data, above the latest satellite classifications. Further intensification is likely with Lisa now having a small radius-of-maximum winds in light vertical wind shear, along with the deep warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean providing ample fuel. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in less than a day when it is near the Bay Islands of Honduras, and Lisa should intensify as it approaches Belize. For now, rapid intensification is not forecast, but since the percentage chances of this occurrence from SHIPS are increasing, this possibility must be mentioned and the new forecast is higher than the bulk of the guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter. Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and possible along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon. 2. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon. 4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.3N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.0N 88.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/0000Z 17.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 17.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake