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Tropical Storm Lisa Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 030841
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
400 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Lisa has continued to move farther inland during the last several 
hours, with the center now located over extreme northern Guatemala. 
The organization of the storm has continued to decrease in both 
satellite imagery and radar data, and the initial intensity is 
reduced to a somewhat uncertain 40 kt.

The initial motion is 280/9 kt.  This general motion should continue 
for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as 
Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche.  Starting near 48 h, the 
cyclone should slow its forward motion and make a looping turn 
toward the southeast, with this motion continuing until the cyclone 
dissipates.  The track guidance after 24 h has shifted a bit 
westward since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track for 
those time periods is nudged westward as well.

Lisa should continue to weaken while the center stays inland, and 
it is forecast to be below tropical-storm strength in about 12 h.  
Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air entrainment are likely to 
prevent re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche, and these 
conditions should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low 
over water by 72 h.  The global models are in good agreement that 
the system will dissipate by 96 h, and the new intensity forecast 
follows that scenario.


Key Messages:

1. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, 
northern Guatemala, and portions of southeast Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread inland over 
northern Guatemala and the southern portions of the Yucatan 
peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours, though all 
coastal warnings have been discontinued. 

3. Elevated Water levels along the coast of Belize should 
diminish today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 17.8N  90.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 17.9N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/0600Z 18.4N  93.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1800Z 19.2N  94.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  05/0600Z 19.9N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 20.2N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 19.8N  94.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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