Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Lisa Forecast Advisory


165 
WTNT25 KNHC 311448
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022
1500 UTC MON OCT 31 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  77.3W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  77.3W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  76.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.8N  79.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.3N  81.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.8N  83.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N  86.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.1N  88.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.7N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  30SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N  77.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





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