Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Lisa Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT25 KNHC 030249
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022
0300 UTC THU NOV 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CHETUMAL TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...AND
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA 
MAYA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* CHETUMAL TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  89.1W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  89.1W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  88.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.7N  90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N  92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N  94.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.6N  94.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N  95.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.2N  95.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N  94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  89.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN




Source link