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Tropical Storm Lisa Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT25 KNHC 010840
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022
0900 UTC TUE NOV 01 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA WESTWARD
TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS
* BELIZE COAST FROM NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS
* ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUATEMALA FROM BORDER WITH HONDURAS TO PUERTO BARRIOS
* MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.  TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  80.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  80.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  79.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.4N  82.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.7N  84.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N  87.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.0N  88.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N  90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.0N  91.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  80.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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