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Tropical Storm Lisa Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT25 KNHC 312053
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022
2100 UTC MON OCT 31 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS...PLUS A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE COUNTRY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE FROM NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS GUATEMALA
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM THE BORDER WITH HONDURAS WESTWARD
TO PUERTO BARRIOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS
* BELIZE COAST FROM NORTH OF PUERTO BARRIOS TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS
* GUATEMALA FROM BORDER WITH HONDURAS TO PUERTO BARRIOS
* MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA HERRERO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LISA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  78.4W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  78.4W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  77.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.7N  80.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N  82.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.7N  85.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N  87.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.9N  89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.9N  90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N  93.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N  78.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




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