000 WTNT34 KNHC 140535 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 100 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 92.5W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alvarado to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.5 West. Karl is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue through this morning. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this morning. Some slight weakening is possible later today before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven