000 WTNT44 KNHC 141447 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 The satellite presentation of Karl has improved this morning. An increase in deep convection closer to the center has resulted in a more symmetric dense overcast, with a concentrated area of lightning noted downshear of the center. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is currently investigating Karl has found 850-mb flight-level winds of 42 kt so far, with peak SFMR retrievals in the 40-45 kt range. Based on these data and a dropsonde that indicated a slightly lower minimum pressure than last night, the initial intensity is raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory. The long-term motion of Karl is now south-southeastward at 6 kt, although aircraft fixes and radar suggest the motion has been more southward during the past 3-6 hours. A southward to south-southwestward motion is expected through early Saturday as Karl moves around a mid-level ridge over west-central Mexico. While many of the models (including ECMWF, UKMET, and HMON) take the center of Karl inland between 12-24 h, the GFS and HWRF show a more shallow system turning westward within the low-level flow and remaining just offshore this weekend. Given that the ECMWF seems to have a better handle on the current convective structure and initial motion of Karl, the NHC forecast more closely follows the first set of models and shows the storm center inland by 24 h. Moderate west-northwesterly shear and drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment should continue to plague Karl during the next 12-24 h. Therefore, little net change in strength is expected through landfall, although small intensity fluctuations are possible. Karl is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico as a tropical storm late tonight, then quickly weaken to a depression and dissipate over the terrain of southern Mexico by late Saturday or Saturday night. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion of the warning area in southern Mexico by this afternoon or evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 19.4N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.8N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.1N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart