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Tropical Storm Karl Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT44 KNHC 141447
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

The satellite presentation of Karl has improved this morning. An 
increase in deep convection closer to the center has resulted in a 
more symmetric dense overcast, with a concentrated area of lightning 
noted downshear of the center. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft that is currently investigating Karl has found 850-mb 
flight-level winds of 42 kt so far, with peak SFMR retrievals in the 
40-45 kt range. Based on these data and a dropsonde that indicated a 
slightly lower minimum pressure than last night, the initial 
intensity is raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory.

The long-term motion of Karl is now south-southeastward at 6 kt, 
although aircraft fixes and radar suggest the motion has been more 
southward during the past 3-6 hours. A southward to 
south-southwestward motion is expected through early Saturday as 
Karl moves around a mid-level ridge over west-central Mexico. While 
many of the models (including ECMWF, UKMET, and HMON) take the 
center of Karl inland between 12-24 h, the GFS and HWRF show a more 
shallow system turning westward within the low-level flow and 
remaining just offshore this weekend. Given that the ECMWF seems to 
have a better handle on the current convective structure and initial 
motion of Karl, the NHC forecast more closely follows the first set 
of models and shows the storm center inland by 24 h.

Moderate west-northwesterly shear and drier mid-level air in the 
surrounding environment should continue to plague Karl during the 
next 12-24 h. Therefore, little net change in strength is expected 
through landfall, although small intensity fluctuations are 
possible. Karl is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico as 
a tropical storm late tonight, then quickly weaken to a depression 
and dissipate over the terrain of southern Mexico by late Saturday 
or Saturday night.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding, 
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of 
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in southern Mexico by this afternoon or evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 19.4N  92.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 18.8N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 18.1N  93.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



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