000 WTNT44 KNHC 140846 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that Karl remains disorganized this morning, with the low-level center at the northwestern edge of a newly-formed convective burst. Recent scatterometer data and earlier data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft did not conclusively indicate any tropical-storm force winds in the system. However, the central pressure was near 1001 mb, and based on likely undersampling of the winds the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. The initial motion is southeastward or 140/5 kt. Karl should turn southward later today and then south-southwestward by tonight as the system reaches the periphery of a mid-level ridge over west-central Mexico. This south-southwestward motion is expected to continue until Karl dissipates over Mexico between 36-48 h. While the forecast track follows the consensus models and has not changed much from the previous advisory, it should be noted that the GFS is an outlier in that it turns a weak and vertically shallow Karl more westward and keeps it offshore through 48 h. Moderate west-northwesterly shear, dry air entrainment, and upper-level convergence affecting Karl should continue through landfall. Thus, little change in strength is likely before landfall, although it cannot be ruled out that Karl could weaken to a depression before reaching the coast. After landfall, the cyclone should quickly weaken and dissipate between 36-48 h. Even, if the cyclone stays over water longer as suggested by the GFS, the generally hostile environment should not allow strengthening. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion of the warning area in southern Mexico by late today or tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 20.2N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 19.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 18.6N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.7N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven