Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Karl Forecast Advisory


828 
WTNT24 KNHC 120234
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022
0300 UTC WED OCT 12 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
SOUTHWARD TO ROCA PARTIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO ROCA PARTIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  94.9W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  94.9W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  94.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.0N  95.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.4N  95.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.1N  95.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.2N  96.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.4N  96.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N  97.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  94.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





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