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Tropical Storm Karl Forecast Advisory


640 
WTNT24 KNHC 112051
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022
2100 UTC TUE OCT 11 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO VERACRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  94.4W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  94.4W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  94.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.3N  94.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N  95.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N  96.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.7N  96.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.2N  96.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.9N  97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N  94.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE





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