Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Julia Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FONT13 KNHC 071454
PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132022               
1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)

PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  44(51)   8(59)   X(59)   X(59)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   8(34)   X(34)   X(34)
BLUEFIELDS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
BLUEFIELDS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN ANDRES     34  X   3( 3)  47(50)  14(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)  17(17)  12(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

LIMON          34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

COLON          34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

KINGSTON       34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     



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