Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 071454
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132022
1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA
ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA PATUCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO PUNTA PATUCA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE 
NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  73.1W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  73.1W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  72.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.0N  75.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  20SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N  78.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.1N  81.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.1N  83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.6N  85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE  20SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N  88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.2N  93.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N  73.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




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