Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Tropical Storm Idalia Wind Speed Probabilities



260 
FONT15 KNHC 302049
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023               
2100 UTC WED AUG 30 2023                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CAPE HATTERAS  34  1  38(39)   2(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

CHERRY PT NC   34  1  30(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

NEW RIVER NC   34  1  71(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  2  69(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SURF CITY NC   34 31  53(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

WILMINGTON NC  34 41  29(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34 89   9(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  1  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

FLORENCE SC    34 46   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)

COLUMBIA SC    34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

LITTLE RIVER   34 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
LITTLE RIVER   50  5   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MYRTLE BEACH   34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH   50 12   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GEORGETOWN SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GEORGETOWN SC  50 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

CHARLESTON SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CHARLESTON SC  50 44   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
CHARLESTON SC  64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50 86   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAVANNAH GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAVANNAH GA    50 33   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
SAVANNAH GA    64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

KINGS BAY GA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

WAYCROSS GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
WAYCROSS GA    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

MAYPORT NS FL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

JACKSONVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  13(24)   6(30)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     



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